Analysis: fat cattle, calf, and corn

Fat Ox

According to the CEPEA/B3 index, the price of fat cattle closed out the month of June with another decline. Despite a rebound in the last week of the month, the monthly average for the period was 220.70 reais/@, down 2.74% from the previous month and 11.29% from the same period last year. At the end of the first half of the year, the commodity had depreciated by approximately 28.95 reais/@.

Looking ahead, the trend starting in the second half of the year is for the market to rebound. At the close of trading on July 2, July contracts were trading at 234.25 reais/@, 4% above the market benchmark for that same day. As for the coming months, the futures market is trading at 238.75 for August and 241.00 for September.

Calf

In the replacement market, there was also a depreciation of calves according to CEPEA data. In the markets of Mato Grosso do Sul, the price closed June with a monthly average of 2,063.02 reais per head; 213.48 reais/kg.

The situation is somewhat different from that of fat cattle: when compared to the previous month and the same period last year, the decline was less pronounced—1.35% compared to May and 5.66% compared to the same period last year.

Turning to the São Paulo markets, calves closed out June at a monthly average of 1,949.33 reais/cbs, down 2.69%MoM and 2.16%YoY.

Corn

Just like the cattle and calf markets, corn prices fell both in June and at the end of the first half of the year. The Esalq/Cepea index posted a monthly average of 57.86 reais/sc last month, down 1.81% from May. On the other hand, when compared to the same period last year, the commodity rose by 5.13%.

Just like the fat cattle, the futures market also shows an upward trend in prices for the coming months. The trading session on July 2 indicated corn quoted at 59.56 reals per bag for September and 63.13 reals for November.

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